How does one start to tackle an addiction? How do we start tackling climate change? These are all big issues that need much more work than just guessing can help. Stop Guessing by Nat Greene is a book about how to handle such big problems.

Stop Guessing

Naturally, this ought to be the first tip. Guessing usually works well for easy problems that are obvious. However, when dealing with big problems, guessing will only cost more time and money. Even if you get the best minds thinking of possible causes/solutions to a problem, in the end, you will have a list of guesses, that all need to be checked and the issue may still persist. Writing down guesses in order to get them out of your mind is a helpful strategy to get back to the necessary problem solving at work.

Smell the Problem

The real first step to start tackling the problem is to record and document the activity surrounding it. Propose questions to tackle before investigating (examples below). Probe at what factors that do and do not cause it. Only document what is pertinent to the issue to avoid overload and red herrings. As a result of smelling the problem, the team will be brought together and believe the problem to be manageable.

Here is a list of possible starter questions:

  • What does the problem look like?
  • If you look closely, is it always the same every time?
  • When did you first see the problem?
  • What pattern do you notice if you look at the problem over time?
  • Where might you expect to see the same problem but do not?

Embrace your ignorance

Humans are inclined to hide what they do not know, so they appear smarter socially. However, this leads to awkward and expensive behaviors. Admit that you do not know everything, and neither does anyone else. Proceed to start learning, or relearning, the basics and ask questions to build a picture from the ground up. Starting with any false assumptions lead to more issues down the line. Challenge organizations over individuals and lead by example by practicing humility to let others see their on ignorance as well.

Know what problem you are solving

It is crucial to define the problem quantifiably so that all parties understand the issue and what progress means. Instead of saying “the shower head is broken” smell out the problem to determine “the water pressure is too low.” The first statement gives no direction to start problem solving, while with the second statement, you are halfway finished.

There are many issues we live with in our lives that we do not tackle, because the language we use to describe the problem is too vague and does not tackle the real issue. Once the real problem is rigorously defined, then the real problem solving can start.

You should also keep on mind the scope of the problem. Limit goals to your sphere of influence, which may be at the organizational, group, or individual level. Lastly, ask if there are any assumptions that are going overlooked. Assumptions lead to wasted time and energy.

Dig Into the Fundamentals

Without understanding fundamentals of the problem, guess taking is bound to happen, which of course leads to dozens of ideas to test. By doing some research, a base set of knowledge and an idea for where the issue lies can be formed.

Separating the issue into a few high-level variables is better than taking the time to brainstorm all the factors that could cause such a problem and the researching every one of them. Just get your hands dirty with some research into the highest level of system operations.

Do not Rely on Experts

Experts can be useful tools for obtaining knowledge, but they should not be used as a crutch to do all the heavy lifting. They should be used as a point of inquiry for your questions, because they may not be great problem solvers themselves.

Furthermore, experts may have biases, such as expectations for quick answers. They might give you an incorrect answer instead of saying “I do not know.” They also may have conflicts of interest, such as the need to sell you newer products to fix your issue, instead of maintaining what is already available. Lastly, they may fall victim to the curse of knowledge, meaning they have a hard time seeing things with a fresh perspective.

Believe in a Simple Solution

This behavior is all in your mind, literally. It is great to believe in a solution, but it is even better to believe in a simple one. Hard problems often take a lot of time and effort to resolve, but that does not mean the answer needs to be complex. Thinking that the key to solving the problem is convoluted will lead to unnecessarily convoluted guesses.

Believing in a simple solution is not the same as belief in a simple guess. Again, guesses are not productive to difficult problems. Problem solving requires distilling the issue and believing in a simple solution.

Others may get mad when they hear such a frustrating problem has such an easy solution, so when presenting the resolution first state that it is solved, tell a story about why the problem was so difficult, and then surprise the audience with the simple answer.

Make Fact-Based Decisions

It would be obvious to say that facts should outweigh opinions when making major decisions that could have a huge impact. And yet many decisions are based on opinions disguised as facts. Such as brainstorming and polling ideas rather than doing analysis to which would be most cost effective solution or bring the most joy to the consumer.

When confronting someone about an opinion based decision, ask them where they got their facts so that they are able to see the flaw in their logic and step in to say a better course of action. Be sure to challenge or investigate where facts come from to determine their validity. Also keep in mind that you may not have all the relevant facts to make a judgement.

Stay on Target

It is easy to get lost in a laundry list of possible causes to a problem, however when organized properly, guesses can manifest into a systematic approach. Recount the ideation of high level variables from “Dig Into the Fundamentals.” By coming up with high level variables that encapsulate many of the potential guesses, and the forming the variables into a tree (see rightward image), a top down approach can be taken. Start at the top of tree and test the variable to see if that is the issue. If it is put an X to signify that is where the problem lies. Continue down the list, adding more high level variables to narrow in on the problem gradually. Check marks signify that the process is working according to plan, and blank boxes are yet to be tested.

It is important to stay on track and be sure to test variables accurately, so that there is no need to back track. If there are more than one X in a single row, that is okay. Sometimes two leads must be taken to ensure coverage. Also notice how at each step, a majority of the tree is taken out of consideration. That is the power of organization. A laundry list will not provide this same level of focus.

How to Choose Your Method

There are many methods to choose from when deciding how to problem solve, here are some guidelines to follow when picking your method. First, to reiterate, if a system asks you to guess (even if it is disguised behind “hypothesis” or “brainstorm root causes”), question the process.

Secondly, ensure the method starts by focusing on the problem at hand. If you are tasked with choosing a method that must be used by high-potential and beginner problem solvers, use an expert level method and catch the beginners up to speed along the way. Also be wary of methods that focus on picking essential team members for political/social reasons. Lastly, double check that the method emphasizes at least (but hopefully more than) one of the behaviors described in previous chapters.

The method that the author, Nat Greene, uses is Variable Analysis and is described in this chart:

Go Solve Some Problem

Finally, get your hands dirty with difficult problems and hone your skills along the way. You do not have to be a master problem solver to get started defining and cracking at the problem. Some of the best problem solvers hold two opposing beliefs simultaneously: 1- You have the skills needed to solve the problem and 2- if you do not stay vigilant this might be the moment of failure. If you think you are able to solve the problem, you will eventually with enough hard work. Trying your hardest should not be the standard for success; solving the problem should be.

Conclusion

Guessing is helpful for easy problems, but more difficult require problem solving. Start by scouting out the problem and document when the issue occurs. Next time someone tells you something and you do not understand, just ask them about it. Challenge assumptions. Be precise in what you are trying to solve. Understand the basics of the system through defining over-arching variable. Use experts as tools, not as crutches. Believe that there is a simple solution, and that you just need to find it. Look for the facts, and unveil hidden opinions. Finally, go out there and solve some problems!